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Eyyyy!
I spent half of May on vacation visiting friends in Scotland
and Germany
so read less science than usual. But the three articles I have seem broadly
interesting. To deepen my review, AFTER I finished my write up I asked
Elicit (an AI tool) to look at each paper for 1-3 key points or findings
or limitations not mentioned in the abstract that might be both important but
non-obvious. It actually caught 1-2 things I decided to include in each
summary: some I'd missed, most I'd noted and didn't see as important but on
reflection decided they were worth including.
If you know someone who wants to sign up to
receive these summaries, they can do so at http://subscribe.sciencejon.com (no
need to email me).
CLIMATE CHANGE:
Can’t wait for the next IPCC climate report? Van Vuuren et al. 2026 lists the
scenarios they plan to model in that report (results likely in a year or so).
These will replace the RCPs. See section 2.3 for the full list, and note the
shift to plain language and emphasis on plausibility: “medium emission
scenario” means current policies and trends continue (~3C increase by 2100),
“high emissions” means as much rollbacks as is plausible (~3.5C increase by
2100 but rising past that). They also have scenarios where we start high or
medium but later step up action to low. We’ll have to wait to see the final
model runs, expected impacts (physical and socioeconomic including equity),
and associated storylines of each scenario. They also note that they use a
simple approach for estimation past 2100 (2150 and 2500) but reflect that
over time we need to extend the horizon of more complex modeling. They also
note that not all potential carbon dioxide removal approaches are included in
most scenarios (see section 5).
FOREST RESILIENCE:
Wang et al. 2026 has a nice list of 10 ways to improve the climate resilience
of forests. Nothing brand new or surprising - except maybe the phrase
"cohesive polycentric governance frameworks" for a coordinated mix
of autonomous and shared decision-making across Indigenous people,
governments, carbon market managers, etc. The abstract and Fig
2 have the full list; in addition to governance they have:
diversity, disturbance, protection, restoration, adaptive mgmt, sustainable
forestry / logging, monitoring, learning, and collaboration. Table 1 lists
some examples of climate stresses and related forest vulnerabilities and
resilience strategies. Figure 1 is an interesting map attempting to split
'natural' and 'social-ecological' forests (based on Forest Landscape
Integrity Index as per Grantham et al. 2020 which docks points for forest
cover loss and other observed human pressures plus loss of connectivity). Of
the 10 - they assert that diversity and decentralization of authority are the
most essential, but recognize limitations in seed sources, trade-offs (e.g.,
prescribed fire affecting human health, or lower timber yields w/ higher
diversity and longer rotations), and cost.
OCEAN CONSERVATION:
Worm et al. 2026 provides the status of 2030 global goals to both 1) protect
30% of the ocean and 2) sustainably manage 100% of it. They look at 445 fish
stocks in the 19 FAO "major fishing areas" that cover the entire
ocean and collectively produce 72% of global marine fish harvest (the other
28% is from minor untracked species - which are often less well managed).
They find 10% of the ocean is protected (from 2-20% by fishing area) of which
3% is either highly or fully protected (from 0.1-19%) meaning the marine
protected area (MPA) is implemented w/ a management plan and a ban on
damaging forms of extraction. For other non-marine people like me,
"highly protected" specifically means: only small scale infrequent
anchoring, only low-impact small scale unfed aquaculture, and that fishing is
infrequent using a few kinds of selective low-impact gear. Sadly the paper
points out big MPAs are typically in remote places w/ little fishing,
avoiding conflict but also reducing the likelihood of impact and potential
for coordination. The fishery management bit is more confusing: they report
that 62% of the stocks (~45% of global marine fish harvest) were 'sustainably
managed' using the criteria of fishing at or below a single-species maximum
sustained yield, but the paper ALSO argues that's the wrong target and we
need to be keeping harvest at or below a "multi-species maximum
sustained yield" (see Fig 3) which is very rare. They also note that
different agencies typically manage MPAs (often w/ a biodiversity focus) and
fisheries (often w/ an economic and production focus), sometimes leading to
poor coordination and even conflict.
REFERENCES:
Grantham, H. S., Duncan, A., Evans, T. D., Jones, K. R., Beyer, H. L.,
Schuster, R., Walston, J., Ray, J. C., Robinson, J. G., Callow, M., Clements,
T., Costa, H. M., DeGemmis, A., Elsen, P. R., Ervin, J., Franco, P., Goldman,
E., Goetz, S., Hansen, A., … Watson, J. E. M. (2020). Anthropogenic
modification of forests means only 40% of remaining forests have high
ecosystem integrity. Nature Communications, 11(1), 5978. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19493-3
Van Vuuren, D. P., O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L.
P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N.,
Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner,
A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., … Ziehn, T. (2026). The Scenario
Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7). Geoscientific
Model Development, 19(7), 2627–2656. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026
Wang, L., Tagesson, T., Wei, F., Dong, W., Tian, F., Duan, Z., Luan, H.,
& Svenning, J. (2026). Ten Strategies to Promote Climate Resilience and
Sustainability of Global Forests. WIREs Climate Change, 17(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.70064
Worm, B., Clausius, E., Grorud-Colvert, K., Palardy, J. E., Pauly, D., Pike,
E. P., Pikitch, E. K., Roberts, C. M., Roberts, G. E., Richmond, R. H.,
Schiller, L., Stuart-Smith, R. D., & Sumaila, U. R. (2026). Integrating
global targets for protected areas and sustainable fisheries. Marine Policy,
191(October 2025), 107152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2026.107152
Sincerely,
Jon
P.s. The pic is of me bike sailing (aka "land yachting" for
some reason) on a beach in St. Andrews, Scotland. It is a lot of fun!
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