A research fellow of mine (Essayas Ayana) recently published an analysis (which I'm also an author on) of the degree to which environmental factors like drought drive conflict between pastoralists. The idea was that as the lands where they graze their animals dry up, they may be forced to graze in areas used by others, which could drive conflict. However, we found that environmental variables had very little predictive power for where conflict occurred. The paper is officially hosted here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716305265
You can read the full text of the paper here:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Essayas_Ayana2/publication/299520493_Examining_the_relationship_between_environmental_factors_and_conflict_in_pastoralist_areas_of_East_Africa/links/572b8f9708aef7c7e2c6b569.pdf
Here's the citation:
Ayana, Essayas K., Pietro Ceccato, Jonathan RB Fisher, and Ruth DeFries. "Examining the relationship between environmental factors and conflict in pastoralist areas of East Africa." Science of The Total Environment 557 (2016): 601-611.
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