June 2026 science summary

Eyyyy! I spent half of May on vacation visiting friends in Scotland and Germany so read less science than usual. But the three articles I have seem broadly interesting. To deepen my review, AFTER I finished my write up I asked Elicit (an AI tool) to look at each paper for 1-3 key points or findings or limitations not mentioned in the abstract that might be both important but non-obvious. It actually caught 1-2 things I decided to include in each summary: some I'd missed, most I'd noted and didn't see as important but on reflection decided they were worth including. If you know someone who wants to sign up to receive these summaries, they can do so at http://subscribe.sciencejon.com (no need to email me). CLIMATE CHANGE: Can’t wait for the next IPCC climate report? Van Vuuren et al. 2026 lists the scenarios they plan to model in that report (results likely in a year or so). These will replace the RCPs. See section 2.3 for the full list, and note the shift to plain language and emphasis on plausibility: “medium emission scenario” means current policies and trends continue (~3C increase by 2100), “high emissions” means as much rollbacks as is plausible (~3.5C increase by 2100 but rising past that). They also have scenarios where we start high or medium but later step up action to low. We’ll have to wait to see the final model runs, expected impacts (physical and socioeconomic including equity), and associated storylines of each scenario. They also note that they use a simple approach for estimation past 2100 (2150 and 2500) but reflect that over time we need to extend the horizon of more complex modeling. They also note that not all potential carbon dioxide removal approaches are included in most scenarios (see section 5). FOREST RESILIENCE: Wang et al. 2026 has a nice list of 10 ways to improve the climate resilience of forests. Nothing brand new or surprising - except maybe the phrase "cohesive polycentric governance frameworks" for a coordinated mix of autonomous and shared decision-making across Indigenous people, governments, carbon market managers, etc. The abstract and Fig 2 have the full list; in addition to governance they have: diversity, disturbance, protection, restoration, adaptive mgmt, sustainable forestry / logging, monitoring, learning, and collaboration. Table 1 lists some examples of climate stresses and related forest vulnerabilities and resilience strategies. Figure 1 is an interesting map attempting to split 'natural' and 'social-ecological' forests (based on Forest Landscape Integrity Index as per Grantham et al. 2020 which docks points for forest cover loss and other observed human pressures plus loss of connectivity). Of the 10 - they assert that diversity and decentralization of authority are the most essential, but recognize limitations in seed sources, trade-offs (e.g., prescribed fire affecting human health, or lower timber yields w/ higher diversity and longer rotations), and cost. OCEAN CONSERVATION: Worm et al. 2026 provides the status of 2030 global goals to both 1) protect 30% of the ocean and 2) sustainably manage 100% of it. They look at 445 fish stocks in the 19 FAO "major fishing areas" that cover the entire ocean and collectively produce 72% of global marine fish harvest (the other 28% is from minor untracked species - which are often less well managed). They find 10% of the ocean is protected (from 2-20% by fishing area) of which 3% is either highly or fully protected (from 0.1-19%) meaning the marine protected area (MPA) is implemented w/ a management plan and a ban on damaging forms of extraction. For other non-marine people like me, "highly protected" specifically means: only small scale infrequent anchoring, only low-impact small scale unfed aquaculture, and that fishing is infrequent using a few kinds of selective low-impact gear. Sadly the paper points out big MPAs are typically in remote places w/ little fishing, avoiding conflict but also reducing the likelihood of impact and potential for coordination. The fishery management bit is more confusing: they report that 62% of the stocks (~45% of global marine fish harvest) were 'sustainably managed' using the criteria of fishing at or below a single-species maximum sustained yield, but the paper ALSO argues that's the wrong target and we need to be keeping harvest at or below a "multi-species maximum sustained yield" (see Fig 3) which is very rare. They also note that different agencies typically manage MPAs (often w/ a biodiversity focus) and fisheries (often w/ an economic and production focus), sometimes leading to poor coordination and even conflict. REFERENCES: Grantham, H. S., Duncan, A., Evans, T. D., Jones, K. R., Beyer, H. L., Schuster, R., Walston, J., Ray, J. C., Robinson, J. G., Callow, M., Clements, T., Costa, H. M., DeGemmis, A., Elsen, P. R., Ervin, J., Franco, P., Goldman, E., Goetz, S., Hansen, A., … Watson, J. E. M. (2020). Anthropogenic modification of forests means only 40% of remaining forests have high ecosystem integrity. Nature Communications, 11(1), 5978. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19493-3 Van Vuuren, D. P., O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L. P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner, A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., … Ziehn, T. (2026). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7). Geoscientific Model Development, 19(7), 2627–2656. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026 Wang, L., Tagesson, T., Wei, F., Dong, W., Tian, F., Duan, Z., Luan, H., & Svenning, J. (2026). Ten Strategies to Promote Climate Resilience and Sustainability of Global Forests. WIREs Climate Change, 17(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.70064 Worm, B., Clausius, E., Grorud-Colvert, K., Palardy, J. E., Pauly, D., Pike, E. P., Pikitch, E. K., Roberts, C. M., Roberts, G. E., Richmond, R. H., Schiller, L., Stuart-Smith, R. D., & Sumaila, U. R. (2026). Integrating global targets for protected areas and sustainable fisheries. Marine Policy, 191(October 2025), 107152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2026.107152 Sincerely, Jon P.s. The pic is of me bike sailing (aka "land yachting" for some reason) on a beach in St. Andrews, Scotland. It is a lot of fun!